| Stacking Estimate (95% CI) | SC Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) | STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92_1 | 0.98 (0.82, 1.73) | 0.84 (0.68, 1.02) | 1.57 (1.19, 2.08) | 1.62 (1.25, 2.14) | 0.97 (0.82, 1.16) |
| 92_2 | 1.21 (0.33, 1.6) | 0.41 (0.3, 0.57) | 1.27 (0.98, 1.62) | 0.88 (0.7, 1.1) | 1.02 (0.78, 1.33) |
| 92_3 | 0.72 (0.58, 0.93) | 0.81 (0.63, 1.03) | 1.38 (0.99, 1.9) | 1.22 (0.89, 1.7) | 0.71 (0.57, 0.86) |
| 92_4 | 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) | 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.78, 1.18) | 0.85 (0.7, 1.04) | 0.84 (0.72, 0.96) |
| 92_5 | 0.64 (0.55, 0.86) | 0.63 (0.55, 0.72) | 0.83 (0.67, 1.04) | 0.9 (0.71, 1.13) | 0.8 (0.67, 0.94) |
| 92_6 | 0.94 (0.65, 1.18) | 0.72 (0.6, 0.86) | 0.88 (0.71, 1.08) | 0.96 (0.78, 1.19) | 0.75 (0.64, 0.88) |
| 92_7 | 0.67 (0.5, 0.93) | 0.59 (0.48, 0.71) | 0.79 (0.64, 0.99) | 0.77 (0.61, 0.96) | 0.66 (0.55, 0.78) |
| 92_8 | 0.64 (0.58, 0.75) | 0.64 (0.57, 0.71) | 0.81 (0.66, 1) | 0.75 (0.62, 0.9) | 0.73 (0.61, 0.86) |
| 92_9 | 0.54 (0.42, 0.8) | 0.54 (0.41, 0.72) | 0.83 (0.66, 1.04) | 0.6 (0.49, 0.73) | 0.85 (0.62, 1.13) |
| 92_10 | 0.6 (0.5, 0.78) | 0.54 (0.48, 0.61) | 0.83 (0.7, 0.97) | 0.67 (0.57, 0.8) | 0.56 (0.49, 0.62) |
| 92_11 | 0.53 (0.42, 0.69) | 0.52 (0.42, 0.63) | 0.6 (0.42, 0.84) | 0.57 (0.43, 0.75) | 0.52 (0.43, 0.63) |
| 92_12 | 1.23 (0.28, 2.2) | 0.37 (0.28, 0.48) | 1.52 (1.03, 2.31) | 0.57 (0.41, 0.79) | 0.33 (0.26, 0.41) |
| 92_13 | 0.55 (0.48, 0.66) | 0.55 (0.48, 0.65) | 1.2 (0.98, 1.49) | 0.97 (0.78, 1.17) | 0.96 (0.81, 1.13) |
| 92_14 | 0.8 (0.64, 1.14) | 0.76 (0.63, 0.91) | 0.82 (0.65, 1.03) | 1.13 (0.91, 1.4) | 1.02 (0.87, 1.2) |
| 92_15 | 0.73 (0.58, 1.32) | 0.7 (0.55, 0.89) | 1.02 (0.71, 1.53) | 1.2 (0.83, 1.79) | 0.72 (0.58, 0.9) |
| groups | Synthetic Controls | Time trend | Time trend (no offset) | STL+PCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92_1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.076 | 0.924 |
| 92_2 | 0.238 | 0.762 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 92_3 | 0.168 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.832 |
| 92_4 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 92_5 | 0.867 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.133 |
| 92_6 | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.841 | 0.016 |
| 92_7 | 0.482 | 0.000 | 0.518 | 0.000 |
| 92_8 | 0.944 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.041 |
| 92_9 | 0.962 | 0.038 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 92_10 | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.496 | 0.227 |
| 92_11 | 0.881 | 0.119 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 92_12 | 0.000 | 0.585 | 0.056 | 0.359 |
| 92_13 | 0.991 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| 92_14 | 0.702 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.298 |
| 92_15 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.072 | 0.918 |
| Group | Greatest Inclusion Variable | Greatest Inclusion Probability | Second Greatest Inclusion Variable | Second Greatest Inclusion Probability | Third Greatest Inclusion Variable | Third Greatest Inclusion Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92_1 | N00_99 | 0.9583222 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.9168452 | K00_99 | 0.9090661 |
| 92_2 | P00_99 | 0.9999498 | N00_99 | 0.9984768 | ach_noj | 0.9845151 |
| 92_3 | cJ20_J22 | 0.8149137 | N00_99 | 0.3558905 | Q00_99 | 0.2684211 |
| 92_4 | cJ20_J22 | 0.1428301 | Q00_99 | 0.0807189 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.0488836 |
| 92_5 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.7290155 | N39 | 0.6903530 |
| 92_6 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9999984 | ach_noj | 0.8951678 | N39 | 0.5777261 |
| 92_7 | E00_99 | 0.9999999 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9989214 | Z00_99 | 0.8017235 |
| 92_8 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | Z00_99 | 0.1243362 | ach_noj | 0.0857052 |
| 92_9 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.7369559 | P05_07 | 0.4571872 |
| 92_10 | K00_99 | 0.9752169 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9271148 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.3781999 |
| 92_11 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9889404 | ach_noj | 0.5472590 | pandemic | 0.1793813 |
| 92_12 | Z00_99 | 0.3447811 | ach_noj | 0.3357907 | P00_99 | 0.3160489 |
| 92_13 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 1.0000000 | Z00_99 | 0.1616666 |
| 92_14 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | Z00_99 | 0.9816392 | K00_99 | 0.3240603 |
| 92_15 | pandemic | 0.8365423 | P00_99 | 0.6710974 | ach_noj | 0.4741725 |
| Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 1 | Inclusion Probability of Control 1 | Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 2 | Inclusion Probability of Control 2 | Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 3 | Inclusion Probability of Control 3 | Control 3 Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92_1 | 0.84 (0.68, 1.02) | N00_99 | 0.96 | 0.78 (0.64, 0.97) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.92 | 0.78 (0.63, 0.95) | K00_99 | 0.91 | 0.81 (0.65, 1.01) |
| 92_2 | 0.41 (0.3, 0.57) | P00_99 | 1 | 0.48 (0.33, 0.73) | N00_99 | 1 | 0.59 (0.39, 0.79) | cJ20_J22 | 0.96 | 0.64 (0.48, 0.82) |
| 92_3 | 0.81 (0.63, 1.03) | cJ20_J22 | 0.81 | 0.8 (0.62, 1.03) | N00_99 | 0.36 | 0.76 (0.59, 0.95) | Q00_99 | 0.27 | 0.76 (0.59, 0.95) |
| 92_4 | 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) | cJ20_J22 | 0.14 | 0.84 (0.74, 0.96) | Q00_99 | 0.08 | 0.84 (0.73, 0.96) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.05 | 0.84 (0.72, 0.96) |
| 92_5 | 0.63 (0.55, 0.72) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.68 (0.57, 0.83) | N39 | 0.69 | 0.66 (0.56, 0.77) | pandemic | 0.3 | 0.67 (0.57, 0.81) |
| 92_6 | 0.72 (0.6, 0.86) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.73 (0.61, 0.85) | N39 | 0.58 | 0.72 (0.6, 0.85) | G00_99_SY | 0.37 | 0.72 (0.61, 0.85) |
| 92_7 | 0.59 (0.48, 0.71) | E00_99 | 1 | 0.56 (0.44, 0.73) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.62 (0.49, 0.78) | Z00_99 | 0.8 | 0.6 (0.49, 0.74) |
| 92_8 | 0.64 (0.57, 0.71) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.59 (0.51, 0.71) | Z00_99 | 0.12 | 0.59 (0.5, 0.7) | P00_99 | 0.06 | 0.59 (0.51, 0.69) |
| 92_9 | 0.54 (0.41, 0.72) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.34 (0.23, 0.51) | P05_07 | 0.46 | 0.34 (0.25, 0.45) | N00_99 | 0.09 | 0.34 (0.24, 0.53) |
| 92_10 | 0.54 (0.48, 0.61) | K00_99 | 0.98 | 0.56 (0.49, 0.64) | cJ20_J22 | 0.93 | 0.56 (0.49, 0.63) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.38 | 0.55 (0.48, 0.62) |
| 92_11 | 0.52 (0.42, 0.63) | cJ20_J22 | 0.99 | 0.5 (0.41, 0.61) | pandemic | 0.18 | 0.5 (0.4, 0.61) | P00_99 | 0.16 | 0.49 (0.4, 0.6) |
| 92_12 | 0.37 (0.28, 0.48) | Z00_99 | 0.34 | 0.35 (0.27, 0.45) | P00_99 | 0.32 | 0.36 (0.29, 0.45) | pandemic | 0.18 | 0.36 (0.28, 0.45) |
| 92_13 | 0.55 (0.48, 0.65) | P00_99 | 1 | 0.63 (0.54, 0.73) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.95 (0.79, 1.13) | Z00_99 | 0.16 | 0.93 (0.79, 1.08) |
| 92_14 | 0.76 (0.63, 0.91) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.94 (0.78, 1.11) | Z00_99 | 0.98 | 0.87 (0.73, 1.03) | K00_99 | 0.32 | 0.86 (0.72, 1.04) |
| 92_15 | 0.7 (0.55, 0.89) | pandemic | 0.84 | 0.71 (0.55, 0.91) | P00_99 | 0.67 | 0.73 (0.57, 0.92) | Q00_99 | 0.18 | 0.73 (0.57, 0.94) |
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