Chile_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
92_1 0.98 (0.82, 1.73) 0.84 (0.68, 1.02) 1.57 (1.19, 2.08) 1.62 (1.25, 2.14) 0.97 (0.82, 1.16)
92_2 1.21 (0.33, 1.6) 0.41 (0.3, 0.57) 1.27 (0.98, 1.62) 0.88 (0.7, 1.1) 1.02 (0.78, 1.33)
92_3 0.72 (0.58, 0.93) 0.81 (0.63, 1.03) 1.38 (0.99, 1.9) 1.22 (0.89, 1.7) 0.71 (0.57, 0.86)
92_4 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) 0.95 (0.78, 1.18) 0.85 (0.7, 1.04) 0.84 (0.72, 0.96)
92_5 0.64 (0.55, 0.86) 0.63 (0.55, 0.72) 0.83 (0.67, 1.04) 0.9 (0.71, 1.13) 0.8 (0.67, 0.94)
92_6 0.94 (0.65, 1.18) 0.72 (0.6, 0.86) 0.88 (0.71, 1.08) 0.96 (0.78, 1.19) 0.75 (0.64, 0.88)
92_7 0.67 (0.5, 0.93) 0.59 (0.48, 0.71) 0.79 (0.64, 0.99) 0.77 (0.61, 0.96) 0.66 (0.55, 0.78)
92_8 0.64 (0.58, 0.75) 0.64 (0.57, 0.71) 0.81 (0.66, 1) 0.75 (0.62, 0.9) 0.73 (0.61, 0.86)
92_9 0.54 (0.42, 0.8) 0.54 (0.41, 0.72) 0.83 (0.66, 1.04) 0.6 (0.49, 0.73) 0.85 (0.62, 1.13)
92_10 0.6 (0.5, 0.78) 0.54 (0.48, 0.61) 0.83 (0.7, 0.97) 0.67 (0.57, 0.8) 0.56 (0.49, 0.62)
92_11 0.53 (0.42, 0.69) 0.52 (0.42, 0.63) 0.6 (0.42, 0.84) 0.57 (0.43, 0.75) 0.52 (0.43, 0.63)
92_12 1.23 (0.28, 2.2) 0.37 (0.28, 0.48) 1.52 (1.03, 2.31) 0.57 (0.41, 0.79) 0.33 (0.26, 0.41)
92_13 0.55 (0.48, 0.66) 0.55 (0.48, 0.65) 1.2 (0.98, 1.49) 0.97 (0.78, 1.17) 0.96 (0.81, 1.13)
92_14 0.8 (0.64, 1.14) 0.76 (0.63, 0.91) 0.82 (0.65, 1.03) 1.13 (0.91, 1.4) 1.02 (0.87, 1.2)
92_15 0.73 (0.58, 1.32) 0.7 (0.55, 0.89) 1.02 (0.71, 1.53) 1.2 (0.83, 1.79) 0.72 (0.58, 0.9)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
92_1 0.000 0.000 0.076 0.924
92_2 0.238 0.762 0.000 0.000
92_3 0.168 0.000 0.000 0.832
92_4 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
92_5 0.867 0.000 0.000 0.133
92_6 0.143 0.000 0.841 0.016
92_7 0.482 0.000 0.518 0.000
92_8 0.944 0.000 0.015 0.041
92_9 0.962 0.038 0.000 0.000
92_10 0.277 0.000 0.496 0.227
92_11 0.881 0.119 0.000 0.000
92_12 0.000 0.585 0.056 0.359
92_13 0.991 0.000 0.009 0.000
92_14 0.702 0.000 0.000 0.298
92_15 0.000 0.009 0.072 0.918

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
92_1 N00_99 0.9583222 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.9168452 K00_99 0.9090661
92_2 P00_99 0.9999498 N00_99 0.9984768 ach_noj 0.9845151
92_3 cJ20_J22 0.8149137 N00_99 0.3558905 Q00_99 0.2684211
92_4 cJ20_J22 0.1428301 Q00_99 0.0807189 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.0488836
92_5 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.7290155 N39 0.6903530
92_6 cJ20_J22 0.9999984 ach_noj 0.8951678 N39 0.5777261
92_7 E00_99 0.9999999 cJ20_J22 0.9989214 Z00_99 0.8017235
92_8 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.1243362 ach_noj 0.0857052
92_9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.7369559 P05_07 0.4571872
92_10 K00_99 0.9752169 cJ20_J22 0.9271148 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.3781999
92_11 cJ20_J22 0.9889404 ach_noj 0.5472590 pandemic 0.1793813
92_12 Z00_99 0.3447811 ach_noj 0.3357907 P00_99 0.3160489
92_13 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.1616666
92_14 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.9816392 K00_99 0.3240603
92_15 pandemic 0.8365423 P00_99 0.6710974 ach_noj 0.4741725

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
92_1 0.84 (0.68, 1.02) N00_99 0.96 0.78 (0.64, 0.97) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.92 0.78 (0.63, 0.95) K00_99 0.91 0.81 (0.65, 1.01)
92_2 0.41 (0.3, 0.57) P00_99 1 0.48 (0.33, 0.73) N00_99 1 0.59 (0.39, 0.79) cJ20_J22 0.96 0.64 (0.48, 0.82)
92_3 0.81 (0.63, 1.03) cJ20_J22 0.81 0.8 (0.62, 1.03) N00_99 0.36 0.76 (0.59, 0.95) Q00_99 0.27 0.76 (0.59, 0.95)
92_4 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) cJ20_J22 0.14 0.84 (0.74, 0.96) Q00_99 0.08 0.84 (0.73, 0.96) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.05 0.84 (0.72, 0.96)
92_5 0.63 (0.55, 0.72) cJ20_J22 1 0.68 (0.57, 0.83) N39 0.69 0.66 (0.56, 0.77) pandemic 0.3 0.67 (0.57, 0.81)
92_6 0.72 (0.6, 0.86) cJ20_J22 1 0.73 (0.61, 0.85) N39 0.58 0.72 (0.6, 0.85) G00_99_SY 0.37 0.72 (0.61, 0.85)
92_7 0.59 (0.48, 0.71) E00_99 1 0.56 (0.44, 0.73) cJ20_J22 1 0.62 (0.49, 0.78) Z00_99 0.8 0.6 (0.49, 0.74)
92_8 0.64 (0.57, 0.71) cJ20_J22 1 0.59 (0.51, 0.71) Z00_99 0.12 0.59 (0.5, 0.7) P00_99 0.06 0.59 (0.51, 0.69)
92_9 0.54 (0.41, 0.72) cJ20_J22 1 0.34 (0.23, 0.51) P05_07 0.46 0.34 (0.25, 0.45) N00_99 0.09 0.34 (0.24, 0.53)
92_10 0.54 (0.48, 0.61) K00_99 0.98 0.56 (0.49, 0.64) cJ20_J22 0.93 0.56 (0.49, 0.63) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.38 0.55 (0.48, 0.62)
92_11 0.52 (0.42, 0.63) cJ20_J22 0.99 0.5 (0.41, 0.61) pandemic 0.18 0.5 (0.4, 0.61) P00_99 0.16 0.49 (0.4, 0.6)
92_12 0.37 (0.28, 0.48) Z00_99 0.34 0.35 (0.27, 0.45) P00_99 0.32 0.36 (0.29, 0.45) pandemic 0.18 0.36 (0.28, 0.45)
92_13 0.55 (0.48, 0.65) P00_99 1 0.63 (0.54, 0.73) cJ20_J22 1 0.95 (0.79, 1.13) Z00_99 0.16 0.93 (0.79, 1.08)
92_14 0.76 (0.63, 0.91) cJ20_J22 1 0.94 (0.78, 1.11) Z00_99 0.98 0.87 (0.73, 1.03) K00_99 0.32 0.86 (0.72, 1.04)
92_15 0.7 (0.55, 0.89) pandemic 0.84 0.71 (0.55, 0.91) P00_99 0.67 0.73 (0.57, 0.92) Q00_99 0.18 0.73 (0.57, 0.94)

Plots

92_1

92_2

92_3

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92_4

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92_5

92_6

92_7

92_8

92_9

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92_10

92_11

92_12

92_13

92_14

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92_15